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In my reading I came across an article (Popular Mag) that talks about how the smart money buys most of their shares in the bottom formations. They can do this without affecting share price.
They give illustrations of different types of bottom formations and tell you to keep an eye out for (one to three day) volume anomalies.
I got to thinking that the Software we are using here can help to further identify these (buying anomalies). TSV, BOP and Volume..
In the folowing charts I am trying to highlight these spurts of buying that I believe are the foot prints left behind by the Smart Money purchases and the afermath of their actions.
In the first chart you will see what the final results are. The second chart will show what I believe is the actual days of the smart money purchases (highlighted with XX on the volume) also notice on those days the spike in TSV and the BOP patterns. The third and final chart will show what the pattern looks like up to the mark-up phase.
If you can find bottoming stocks with this type of activity, you should get in early and hold for the long term, because (IMO) the smart money is already there. (By the way this could be a good prelude to the fan pattern)
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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I thought that CFW was a good Bonanza bottom, and I wanted to share it with every one.
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Joined: 10/7/2004
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apsll;
I'm glad you've brought this up. I've been alluding to this concept in many of my posts of late.
This is one of the fundamentals at the heart of what we have euphemistically referred to as "bottom fishing".
The real issue is that we are not just looking for the absolute bottom of a stock's movement, no one on this forum (to my knowledge) can know where that is. But as Jesse Livermore has pointed out, we can be watching for the confirmations that buying has been going on and when the time comes for the break out.
The big money wants to train us to stay away and let them handle that. By their standards, we are only allowed to take part once a stock reaches that mark-up stage (when the big money is making the first level of their profits).
With studious diligence and patient effort, I am convinced (and fortunately have had it proven to me) that we can take part in some of those very nice first level moves.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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How are you typing the "XX" in the volume range? In telechart or in painter or some other program after you take the screen snapshot ?
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Scott, you can add text and edit in the Painter program... The Bonanza Bottom is simmilar to what Martha tells us to look for in bottoming formations. Are you still recieving the daily E-mails?
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Tobydad, the hard part about proving this theory is valid is that you have to wait and be patient. Even after the break-out there will be a series of false starts and pullbacks.
The Smart Money really knows how to test a persons resolve, They have it down to a science (how to shake the weak out of the stock). It is the Bear,or is it the Bull with the most determination that will get the honey...
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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yes I still get them. I'm not certain why. I like the market comentay but it has been a while since I felt like I learned something "NEW". I am not concerned with her fundamentaly researched stocks... becasue I do the same fundamentals. Maybee she reads further into what theyare donig ... but not usually. The market comentary is still nice, she is right very often. But I want to start standing on my own... and I guess she is weaning me any way. During all this time with my problems most of my solutions came from with in. I didn't get much help from them. Basic simple questions are answered.
Oh I've been really attacking the excel. I've done some neat things and am now getting into chart reports and pivot table reports. I created my trade diary in Excel my entry calculation worksheets, which I used marthas as a template but made some changes.
If you use theirs you'll notice that they teach .06 above the previous days high for the entry stop BUT their calculator dosent calculate it. I learned to use multiple embeded functions to calculate entries above price on any price range automaticaly.
Also I consolidated them into one worksheet each and made conditions text and cell color changes. So when an entry comes up as bad risk various cells turn red, on maintaining eh trade as I get with in 1 pt of the target price it changes colors of text in that cell so I know that i could take it or know that i'm close to getting my limit on it etc etc.
I'f you'd like I'll send you a copy of it to look at. Maybee you have some alternate ideas and stuff.
I want to start creating charts to track my wining to loosing trade ratio by trade and by shares. size of average win to size of average loss, maybee an equity line and any other neat reports, like a comparison of shorts to longs and seperate performance reports on short trades only. I realized that I no longer need the tax form aspect of Tradelog because IB gives it to me already but the performance reports and trade tracking aspects are nice. But if Excel will do the same thing and not cost $400.00 for the first year and $200 a year after that why waste the money right?
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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Oh forgot one realy cool thing. They teach to calculate the largest intra day swing for short stop loss calculation. But I personaly have had better luck using candle suport just the inverse of long entries... or calculating the swing based on any whicks or whatever. So I made it possible to do either on the same sheet. Use candle support or swing highs and the entries are apropriately calculated which ever one you use.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Thanks for the offer but I do not use Excell for analysis purposes or to automate any of my decisison makeing (for risk factors, entry or exit).
I will insert charts into Excell and edit them with text and trend lines, stop loss and other importand information. I also use the program for book-keeping, tax tables and other accounting chores. I have tweaked my systems over the years to match my needs and I am content with the way things are working for me..
I sometimes read articles by Martha in a popular tech - mag that I subscribe to. I think that some of our philosophies are similar her and I.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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How do you insert the charts?
I'm starting the create the accounting pages now. I like the calculator because it saves me time in thinking through the math, and possible mistakes in arithmatic  . Also slaps me in the face if the risk is way out of whack.
today i'm starting the chart reports for the performance side of my traders work book. Then it's on to pivot reports !
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
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Scott, just right click in the cell that you want to insert the chart and scroll down to insert, picture, from file.
Lets back up (sorry) I use (big charts) or (telachart). With telachart I use the (print screen) function and paste the chart into the painter program and then I (save as) to my desk top. Now you can right click in Excel and insert, picture, from file. Now when you are browsing, just go to desktop files and the chart that you (saved as) will be on the desk top.
With Big charts it is much easier "just right click in the cell that you want to insert the chart and scroll down to insert, picture, from file". when browsing you should be able to bring up the chart from your current web page.
Good luck.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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when ou insert from Telechart does it hid the chart like a coment in the cell or does it cover a bunch of cells with the picture?
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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Start with a blank work sheet. The picture will cover a bunch of cells. when you left click on the chart then you can go to the corners of the picture and re-size it to what ever you want. You can also do a lot of editing to the chart just by bringing up the drawing toolbar...
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Let me know if you need any more help...
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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Ok I've done that... I was hoping there was a way to "hide" charts with in cells. you could use a hyperlink.
did about 4 hours of work today on performance reports chart setups and adition calculations columns to create the above... minor adjustments to the entry calculator and got a lock up .. lost EVERYTHING and had to start all over.
I've noticed microsoft products do that on this computer if the file get to big.. or If i haven't rebooted the comp recently.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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Curious if you could give the Magazine and issue date number ... I'd like to read the article myself?
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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I am pretty sure that it was the June issue, but I do not have it here with me today. I will let you know tomorrow..
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Scott the article concerning "Bonanza Bottoms" is in the June issue Volume 25 Number 7 Page 46
Keep in mind that this thread is based on that article, but as always I put my Apsll/Tommy21 spin on the material...
Good reading...
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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What magazine?
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Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
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Technical analysis of stocks & commodities
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