Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
I keep coming across pretty charts and they wind up being $5.00 and under. I know intelectually that generally these guys arent the quickest movers ... but when they do move quickly it is staggering the gains that can be made withthem. I am not following some of the threads that claim higher risk in these... I don't see the risk from my point of view. I useually pass onthese guys because movement is typically so slow.
I see that to make great gains on cheap stocks you need to buy greater share lot sizes but I was taught and pretty much agree with the concept of keeping them the same across the board. That bing said AKAM for example moves on average greater per day than mspd... so shorter term gains are more readily possible. However a 2 point gain in AKAM is not like a 2 point gain in MSPD where the money is being nearly doubled...and I cant afford 5000 shares of AKAM but can afford it in a cheaper stock.... and actually could buy a few cheaper ones at that share size and continue to trade my usuall strategy.
But how are you guys finding these little gems ? ? and then getting the guts to pull the trigger. I kept coming across MAMA all summer long and it smiled at me and I would look long and hard at it and then passed at least 10 times.. delisted it from my nightly check list and then looked back at it and hit my head agains the wall.
I have heard that there are people who specialize in cheap stocks and make amazing gains. I see intelectually that cheap stocks are where it is at for longterm holds and huge gains... but I have trouble holding that long.. either I get impatient and take my proffits or get sick of sitting on a loss and move on. I have been pretty sucessful in the first year of my trading in taking frequent smal proffits with moderately tight stops. Market reversal periods brutalize me. December I got flat out slapped around.
But I'm keenly interested in working more with cheaper stocks... I want to be a bottom feeder.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 12/8/2004
Posts: 1,301
|
OK, I would be happy to help you in your quest to gamble.
First set up a scan for all stocks under 5.00
then add a pcf for atr(7) (average true range) You can find how to do this it on this site.
Only trade the stocks with the highest true range. You'll get plenty of action, and you won't have to worry about a stock just sitting there.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
how do I find how to write that formula... or is that it ? atr(7) ? ?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2007
Posts: 49
|
Hey, I am very new to this & would like to join the bottom feeders club.
I have allready "ate" about 4 positions to the tune of 1G due to inexperience.
Since then I have read 2 books, taken 5 DVD courses & spent countless hours scouring the fishtank, I mean scouring the internet. Bought the TeleChart software & am studying all the time. Therefore I wish to start out my new experience in the bottom feeders club.....
OK ?
Stratone
|
|
Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
|
scottnlena,
Here is one way to write a Personal Criteria Formula for a Wilder's Smoothed 7-Period Average True Range:
XAVGH13 - XAVGL13 + .142996048056393 * ((H < C1) * (H - C1) + (C1 < L) * (C1 - L) + 6 / 7 * ((H1 < C2) * (H1 - C2) + (C2 < L1) * (C2 - L1) + 6 / 7 * ((H2 < C3) * (H2 - C3) + (C3 < L2) * (C3 - L2) + 6 / 7 * ((H3 < C4) * (H3 - C4) + (C4 < L3) * (C4 - L3) + 6 / 7 * ((H4 < C5) * (H4 - C5) + (C5 < L4) * (C5 - L4) + 6 / 7 * ((H5 < C6) * (H5 - C6) + (C6 < L5) * (C6 - L5) + 6 / 7 * ((H6 < C7) * (H6 - C7) + (C7 < L6) * (C7 - L6) + 6 / 7 * ((H7 < C8) * (H7 - C8) + (C8 < L7) * (C8 - L7) + 6 / 7 * ((H8 < C9) * (H8 - C9) + (C9 < L8) * (C9 - L8) + 6 / 7 * ((H9 < C10) * (H9 - C10) + (C10 < L9) * (C10 - L9) + 6 / 7 * ((H10 < C11) * (H10 - C11) + (C11 < L10) * (C11 - L10) + 6 / 7 * ((H11 < C12) * (H11 - C12) + (C12 < L11) * (C12 - L11) + 6 / 7 * ((H12 < C13) * (H12 - C13) + (C13 < L12) * (C13 - L12) + 6 / 7 * ((H13 < C14) * (H13 - C14) + (C14 < L13) * (C14 - L13) + 6 / 7 * ((H14 < C15) * (H14 - C15) + (C15 < L14) * (C15 - L14) + 6 / 7 * ((H15 < C16) * (H15 - C16) + (C16 < L15) * (C16 - L15) + 6 / 7 * ((H16 < C17) * (H16 - C17) + (C17 < L16) * (C17 - L16) + 6 / 7 * ((H17 < C18) * (H17 - C18) + (C18 < L17) * (C18 - L17) + 6 / 7 * ((H18 < C19) * (H18 - C19) + (C19 < L18) * (C19 - L18) + 6 / 7 * ((H19 < C20) * (H19 - C20) + (C20 < L19) * (C20 - L19) + 6 / 7 * ((H20 < C21) * (H20 - C21) + (C21 < L20) * (C21 - L20) + 6 / 7 * ((H21 < C22) * (H21 - C22) + (C22 < L21) * (C22 - L21) + 6 / 7 * ((H22 < C23) * (H22 - C23) + (C23 < L22) * (C23 - L22) + 6 / 7 * ((H23 < C24) * (H23 - C24) + (C24 < L23) * (C24 - L23) + 6 / 7 * ((H24 < C25) * (H24 - C25) + (C25 < L24) * (C25 - L24) + 6 / 7 * ((H25 < C26) * (H25 - C26) + (C26 < L25) * (C26 - L25) + 6 / 7 * ((H26 < C27) * (H26 - C27) + (C27 < L26) * (C27 - L26) + 6 / 7 * ((H27 < C28) * (H27 - C28) + (C28 < L27) * (C28 - L27) + 6 / 7 * ((H28 < C29) * (H28 - C29) + (C29 < L28) * (C29 - L28) + 6 / 7 * ((H29 < C30) * (H29 - C30) + (C30 < L29) * (C30 - L29) + 6 / 7 * ((H30 < C31) * (H30 - C31) + (C31 < L30) * (C31 - L30) + 6 / 7 * ((H31 < C32) * (H31 - C32) + (C32 < L31) * (C32 - L31) + 6 / 7 * ((H32 < C33) * (H32 - C33) + (C33 < L32) * (C33 - L32) + 6 / 7 * ((H33 < C34) * (H33 - C34) + (C34 < L33) * (C34 - L33) + 6 / 7 * ((H34 < C35) * (H34 - C35) + (C35 < L34) * (C35 - L34) + 6 / 7 * ((H35 < C36) * (H35 - C36) + (C36 < L35) * (C36 - L35) + 6 / 7 * ((H36 < C37) * (H36 - C37) + (C37 < L36) * (C37 - L36) + 6 / 7 * ((H37 < C38) * (H37 - C38) + (C38 < L37) * (C38 - L37) + 6 / 7 * ((H38 < C39) * (H38 - C39) + (C39 < L38) * (C39 - L38) + 6 / 7 * ((H39 < C40) * (H39 - C40) + (C40 < L39) * (C40 - L39) + 6 / 7 * ((H40 < C41) * (H40 - C41) + (C41 < L40) * (C41 - L40) + 6 / 7 * ((H41 < C42) * (H41 - C42) + (C42 < L41) * (C42 - L41) + 6 / 7 * ((H42 < C43) * (H42 - C43) + (C43 < L42) * (C43 - L42) + 6 / 7 * ((H43 < C44) * (H43 - C44) + (C44 < L43) * (C44 - L43) + 6 / 7 * ((H44 < C45) * (H44 - C45) + (C45 < L44) * (C45 - L44))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
You may wish to review the following:
How to create a Personal Criteria Forumula (PCF)
-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2007
Posts: 49
|
Bruce, When tested that formula : Result 1.4
Market days needed to calculate criterion 66
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
stratone
glad to have you. I The learning curve in this is endevor can be expensive. When I was new I was lucky enough have taken some decent beginner training (technitrader) that had me proffitable from the start. I did papertrade in the beginning and still do it a bit now to test new ideas.
I use a couple of scans in general to find longer term formations I like. I'm building a "cheapie" scan now in which I hope to find stocks under $5.00 that I show strong signs of powerful breakouts (MAMA is a good example.... which I missed) So far I have: price pershare, BOP 10 (just because I like it) Optional might be good for liquidity.
So far I see mainly breakout strategy oportunities... and right now i'm a tad leary of long side entries... however indexes are looking a little stronger to me and if you look at the last intermediate term correction (May) there were plenty of small caps making huge gains so i'll probably go foreward with only the strongest looking ones. My plan is to find consolidators that are showing BOP for at least the last 10 day.. longer is better and not really moving anywhere. I enter a GTC buy stop limit (buy stop or buy limit would work if your broker dosent offer BSLO)a tad above the highest high of the consolidation and wait. if the consolidation fails I didn't risk anything.. if it breaks out .. usually .. not alwayse it will continue into decent gains... which I take quickly. I'm working on learning to hold longer. I sell via stop loss under the consolidation which I ratchet up as price moves. Often I will put a limit at my target also ... help keep greed down. It has also gotten me out at the tip of a whick on reversal days fairly frequently when I was working a day job and setting order at night.
So that is my plan. Beyond that I like to swing trade. I asume an average of 9 decent days in a month.. some months have more and some have less, some have none. I assume 6-7 good tradeable months. I then look for and average of 3 stocks that can move 2+ POINTS over the next week or so, for each of those nine days. I buy 200 shares across the board except for position trades I plan to hold for a few months.. then it is 300-500. So for swing trading I try to get 50-60 points a year.. I missed it last year but still did well. If i do as well as I did last year I should do between 20-30K for the year. Most of last year my accuracy rate hovered around 65%. I'm starting this year with a 6k loss and a 50% accuracy rate becasue weak sidewaysemarkets are tough for me to trade. I find oportunities and make a note on the chart and then chicken out only to find it later went where I thought it would.
Most of my position trades will come later in the year as I expect we arent quite out of the woods for a deeper correction soon. I am not a PRO, I do this all day because I am UNEMPLOYED and live in a podunk town. So don't jump all over my advice. I am usually proffitable... but when i'm not I'm getting flat out slaped around.
good luck to you and it is great to meet other people and exchange ideas and thoughts.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
BRUCE.
Uhhh.... can I copy and past that to creat taht formula.. or is there a way I download that PCF. Actually now that I think of it I recently did a complete restoration on my system and lost soem PCFS that I had gotten from the web site archives, any way you could point me back to them ? I thought my PCF list looked kind a thin.
|
|
Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
|
stratone,
The message is not an error, it is informational. It just means the result is 1.4 for the test symbol and that the formula will not calculate for symbols with less than 66 days of data.
scottnlena,
You can copy and paste the formula. Unless you exported your settings to a file or the Worden Server using File | Backup/Restore TeleChart Files, I cannot point you to how to restore your Personal Criteria Formulas (as I have no idea what they were or where you got them).
-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
naturaly... I was just looking for them. They were attached as a link to another question I had asked about building a scan for consolidation stocks and sorting by consolidation and further by a custom indicator apearance.. or something like that. I think I can find them..
yea I was so agravated with the computer problem i was having at 2:00 A.M. I just decided to wipe everything... backed up photos and word documents.. and it never occoured to me to back up my telechart settings. 2:00 A.M logic.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2007
Posts: 49
|
Thanks Bruce
|
|
Worden Trainer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 65,138
|
stratone,
You're welcome.
-Bruce
Personal Criteria Formulas
TC2000 Support Articles
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
so for our purposes where should I set this average true range.. and by which.. rank, vlaue ? I have done very little of this sort of thing. I started as a Technitrader student and used thier scans mostly but want to play with making and tweaking some of my own scans now.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2007
Posts: 49
|
Scottnlena,
Thanks for the reply. Like I said I am very new to this & welcome all input. I backed off to papertrading for a while while I formulate my style. So far so good. Today I picked 66% winners & the loosers were very small, all and all satisfying.
I used a pcf of 3 down 2 up looking out for morning stars, also looked for stoastics on the way up. Well Im proud to be in the Bottom Feeders Club, and hope to learn & imput at the same time.
Stratone
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
How exactly does a morning star look ? I have not been that clear on them. I use spring boards mostly because they are statistically proffitable for me, I also like vally bottoms. My absolute favorite is the find the spring board before it pops up and get in early. I ocasionally momentum trade but that needs to be in a momentum market or I find there is not enough follow through on a consistant basis.
Yea today was nice.. it was nicer for me around 2:00 but most of my positions became resting candles by the end ofthe day. I almost took them earlier but I have a habit of cutting my proffits short.
it looks like HOC and SUN, maybee even PEIX might give some action next week. Today I was in AKAM, OMTR, JOE, and GME. At one pont I was dong $250 for the day and ended down $36. all positions are up but it sucks to see a $19.00 in the P/L column where there was $100 just a few hours ago.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 1/1/2007
Posts: 49
|
Go to Candlestickforum.com
They have a lot of candle forms described.
Yes I have the same habit of pulling profits out midday. Actuaally saved me some money sometimes.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
yea I think in the longer run I shoot my self in the foot taking profits to soon... but then it seems when I force my self to hold longer than the gut tels me I take it on the chin. BLDP for example.. I had been watching since I missed the run in the first part of 06'. I finally got what I was looking for in October but missed my entry till the morning of 10/25 I made an addition on 11/8 off the doji and then watched my nice proffits soar ... like Icarus. I didn't start to worry till DEc 8th. However BLDP is looking better now than my original entry in some ways. If it can shed its red BOP and start to pull off a trend line i have drawn from the lows of 05 to the lows of Sept. Though I use a training service I still feel like I'm figureing this stuff out on my own. I think any service is only so helpful because in the end each trader needs to figure out what works for him self....
I think I've seen candlestick forum .com Thanks for that on the morning star. do you find them to be fairly reliable patterns ? Looking at my last year of trades i did fairly well on stair steps... so I tend to focus there on the short and longer term. I have read that during value driven markets they seem to show up in charts more frequently.... less speculative buying going on. Kinda makes sense if you think about it.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Scott: with BLDP you should not have bought on 10/25 because there was no buy signal..Remember your Tech' training if the price is not rising the day after a spring board then you do not buy..
Your first good buy signal came on the morning of 11/08 at $6.85 just above the dragon from the day before(just as you mentioned above)..
But you should have sold on the morning of 11/20 after the black Cloud from 11/17
And now I agree it looks like it is geting ready to make another journey North..
As soon as BOP 10 day ma starts to turn up then get ready, Let me know when you think it is time and we will do this together..
Apsll..
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Scott: please give me your Techni Trader analysis of UQM
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Also was IMAX a good buty yesterday??
|
|
 Gold Customer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
|
If your a newbie looking for low priced stocks, check out Peter Worden's notes and videos. He usually has a few he comments on. Good luck.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
APSLL
sorry I was away a few days. Family and weekend and all. After the first 30 days Technitrader begin to talk about other entry possibiliteis.. all of which I take in stride. I no longer like the spring board as much as I do the prespring board.. in where you find it prior and get in earlier with a GTC order above the highest high of the consolidation. That is their position trading plan as well. Also I tend to drop stocks to fast and cut my proffits short so I am consciously working on my risk tolerance and holding through minor corrections, especially considering BLDP's last move up. BLDP currently I have a GTC over the high of the big white..I have often missed entries because the follow through came a few days later and I missed it. VOL and BOP are saying stay away... but I think we will see a trend line bounce.
UQM:Unless you went with a momentum entry off intra day suport, is already moving and I would be inclined to wait for a pull back. As a position entry Clasic TECHNITRADER would be to see it as breaking up through the resistance at $3.25 and a GTC BSLO there would have you in now.. you could have tightened to the most recent consolidation. Stops would be for me around 2.59 but a wider is safer (from a certain point of view). I see resistance at $3.80ish and $4.50ish. I would want to see volume pick up on a longer view to compare with volume at those levels... but you'll know when it is there. This chart dosen't apeal to me....but that is me..and I'm not a perfect trader. It just dosent grab me... probably because it is moving already.
IMAX: I like this one simply because it has been sold so hard. if you are using the technitrader setting the F3 roc spike is indicative of a bottom coming soon (f3 leads a bit sooner than F5) If not using those settings I'm using Rate of Chante 25 on 3day candles with MA 1 and volume. It is sidewayse now so stochastics 10,8,6 is making higher lows and pointed up. TSV 24 and 36 look ok enough for me. I dont put as much emphasis on ROC as Technitrader staff do... it is great when it conforms to their standards but TSV caries more weight to me. It is good that it is getting bop but it got it in sept and it didn't help... but volume is picking up a bit now vs. then. RSI 15 (avg 15) looks good. you can also put trend lines on indicators if that helps... so it is showing strength. Money Stream is depressing. I would be inclined to enter with a GTC off 4.29 for a position. i see resistance at 5 and 5.79 but that isn't to say they cant cross it. The risk to reward will com up kinda flat with that kind of entry. However since 02 they have been trading between $3.00 and 12.00 so that approach (rolling)carries merrit if you are into holding for a longer period of time. For a shorter hold you could enter with a gtc off 3.96(+.06 or whatever it is) and a stop under $3.51 Initial target around $4.95. As far as a Good buy yesterday volume is a bit low for the short term... but that donsent mean that markets wont get good volume tomorrow. I really like the RSI in this one. I had several entries hit friday on less than stellar volume. Tuesday I'll be deciding to hold or dump.
right now i'm in AKAM bot on 1/11 200shrs
GME bot on 1/11 200 shrs
JOE bot 1/11 200 shrs
and OMTR bot 1/12 200 shares. I dont' like the whick on this one..RSI is a bit weak right now and this IPO has not based yet... so this is an ultra tight hold.
I'm also watching MAMA for a new entry. RGCI is giving a clasic momentum entry candle pattern. So is CCOI but the over extended volume is a concern. It'll continue up if I dont enter the order.
SFG has my interest, viewed with longer term indicators. IGV looks promising, as well as NTMD who are completing a restructuring effort. This would be a momentum entry... but as markets so far have had little follow through it is risky to trade that style as yet. MOVI has my interst and I want to think that USG will pop up again soon(LATE NOV). I have a trend line drawn across the tops of SEPT and NOV and across the lows of AUG and NOV. It broke out of that triangle and drifted back and is now bouncing off the top trend line. It may fail.. i'm not keen on this sector right now.. but movement is movement.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
correction... F3 ma 10 not ma 1
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
golfman..
Religiously, I start every night with the worden notes and dream of one day having something intelegent and original to input. I sort all stocks by note date and read those as well. I also check the site for new videos..and at least once a week consider upgrading to platnium.
how do you like it ? ? do you use the worden chat ? do you find good short term picks frequently that way ?
|
|
Gold Customer
Joined: 10/7/2004
Posts: 264
|
Scott,
I like platnium alright. I mainly use it for the interday data -- hourly, 5 min. bars etc.
The chat is alright, but I don't watch a lot unless I am board or someone gets into fighting (like watching a train wreck). Peter Worden is on there quite frequently, and makes his comments. So if you like his comments and ideas, it might be worth it. Good luck.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Scott I mentioned UQM, and IMAX in my last post because I thought that they were ready to make a move..
UQM: look at the BOP and TSV (IMO) when BOP is mostly above the zero line (Since August) and TSV is Stratling the zero line (Again since August) that leads me to belive that the stock is under accumulation.. I use a 22 day ma on volume, when you zoom in (zoom 6) you can see that the 22 day ma line is turning up since January 9th.. Plot ADX in the middle window 14,14 (make sure the check mark is in the box for plot DI lines) and take the check mark out of the visable box so that only the DI lines are showing.. (when the DI+ is crossing the DI-) you can use these as a buy signal.. the further away from each other, the safer the hold.. Techni trader does not go into this deep of analysis in their course. you have to start tooling around with the indicators and back test your ideas, read the worden reports (specifically the ones writen by the Nights) you get a lot of good ideas,
Both UQM & IMAX are up today
I quess my point is to start comming up with your own ideas do not just stay with the basic teachings of Techni-Trader you need to develop your own trading style..(IF you are happy with your results the way they are, then stick with what you are doing)
Either way good luck and stay in touch..
Apsll..
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
Thanks for that. I'd like to learn more of this sort of thing. any suggestions beyond what you just stated ?
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
so for this indicator what is it telling me now for JOE, AKAM, GME, PEIX, and USG ? ? Where can I learn more about using adx in this format ? The above are all purchases I made today, yesterday and the day before.
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 3/21/2006
Posts: 4,308
|
Here is some advice: first of all at first glance I do not see anything wrong with your pics (for an intermediate hold)..
Watch the tutorial on ADX (this site) & MACD then you have to experiment with the consepts try different settings and backtest them..
Do not just copy my settings and make them yours, It has been said many times on this site (and I agree) that two different people can use the same indicators and the same settings and pick the same stocks.. But they will end up with different results (because there are so many variables involved)
Example: The price you strike, The amount of shares you buy, When you sell...
Watch all the tutorials on this web site, combine that with your Techni-trader knowledge and forge your own stle.. do not just copy what others are doing..
Take their advice with a grain of salt, back test and papper trade new ideas before trading them live...
|
|
Registered User
Joined: 4/18/2005
Posts: 4,090
|
right. Thanks.
|
|
|
Guest-1 |