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Surprisingly, the charts are starting to clear up for the SP-500.
Presently, I think we are very close to starting wave d of C in the SP-500, and wave 4 in the Russell 2000, although the small caps are less clear.
The action since the December low certainly looks like a triangle pattern. I count it as follows:
Wave c of C
 12/30 to 1/11 Hi 1294.90 Lo 1246.59
 ends 2/7 Lo 1253.67
 ends 3/16 Hi 1310.45
 ends 4/11 Lo 1282.96
 ends? 5/5 Hi 1326.53
Interestingly, the volume was unimpressive, even though we set a new high.
The market action in recent days strongly suggests to me a preoccupation with Fed action. The market strength with the release of weak jobs data also suggests to me that if the Fed does pause at the next meeting, it is already reflected in the market.
Should the Fed continue to hike, the market is going to sell off, much like it has each and every time it has tried to break out of the channel.
At least for a short term trade, shorting the SP at these levels, with a target at 1300, and a stop on close above the recent high. A more severe correction could take the SP down to the December lows at 1250.
It would be aggressive, to say the least, to take a long term short position based on this Elliott analysis.
The fly in the ointment for the bears is the fact that this triangle may extend and form 4 more waves  ,  ,  , and  , if you follow Pretcher's formulations for "running triangles."
Even after this market corrects, there is still likely to be a rally which will take the market to marginal new highs, say perhaps at 1350.
It might be a good idea for everyone to look at the charts going back to 1986-87. There are many similarities between then and now.
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Registered User
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Arrgh!
My text was mangled by the use of emoticons!
What I meant was the following:
The action since the December low certainly looks like a triangle pattern. I count it as follows:
Wave c of C
( a ) 12/30 to 1/11 Hi 1294.90 Lo 1246.59
( b ) ends 2/7 Lo 1253.67
( c ) ends 3/16 Hi 1310.45
( d )ends 4/11 Lo 1282.96
( e ) ends? 5/5 Hi 1326.53
I also wrote:
The fly in the ointment for the bears is the fact that this triangle may extend and form 4 more waves ( f ),
( g ), ( h ), and ( i ), if you follow Pretcher's formulations for "running triangles."
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I have a different (so what else is new with Elliotticians):
Wave 3 From Apr 2005, currently in wave 5 of that wave.
It doesn't appear to me, from the hourly charts, that we are finished, maybe another 10-20 points higher, although I did take profits on my SPY options Friday. I thin we are close. Then a sloppy wave 4, from the impulse started in Mar 2003.
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bknight,
There are more similarities between our two counts than you would realize, at least if we use the starting point in April 2005, with the difference being that your count is somewhat more bullish than mine.
I think we could make it up to 1350 this year (give or take 10 points), but this bull is looking tired. It is late in the cycle, as you can see by the strength in energy and mining.
The deflation in housing doesn't bode well for the economy in general. I'm betting things are much worse than you are learning from the media, and will get worse.
Bear markets start when GDP growth rates slow. This is different from a negative growth rate.
Consumer spending drives the economy, and real wages drive consumer spending. Adjusting for inflation, real wages have not kept up. Debt has fuled consumption, and that won't go on forever, particularly with rising rates, and the threat of a weak dollar (which would put Bernake in a reverse conundrum, should he decide there is need to cut rates).
The question is timing. Best case scenario is a mild sell off if the Fed pauses in May. Worst case is the start of a sell off to 1250 or so should the Fed hike again in May, which would likely continue through the summer.
Then the game of liars poker with guessing what the Fed will do can continue from the summer to the fall, with the market chopping back and forth, with a bullish bias.
Come fall, watch do not be surprised by a sharp and swift sell off, as the weakness in the economy gets priced in.
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What is your count from Apr 05, are you thinking we are still in a corrective from Jan 06?
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My count from the 2002 low is as follows:
Wave A (or W)
Wave a: Oct 2002 lo to November 2002 hi 3 waves up
Wave b: November 2002 hi to March 2003 lo 3 waves down
Wave c: March 2003 lo to March 2004 Hi 5 waves up
Wave B (or X)
wave a: March 2004 hi to May 2004 low 3 waves Down
wave b: May 2004 lo to June 2004 hi 3 waves Up
wave c: June 2004 hi to August 2004 low 5 waved down
Wave C (or Y)
wave a: August 2004 low to Jan 2005 hi 3 waves up
wave b: Jan 2005 hi to Oct 2005 lo 3 waves down
(April low ends wave w of b) 3 waves down
(August Hi ends wave x of b) 3 waves up
(October Lo ends wave y of b) 3 waves down
wave c: October Lo to May 05 high?? 3 waves up
waves d,e and possibly f,g,h,i to come
I consider the October low more significant because it touched the uptrend line, where the April low came close, but didn't.
Likewise, the August 2005 hi did not touch the upper trendline, while the move from the October low forced me to redraw it.
If you consider the April low more significant, then that simply makes my wave C longer.
Is that a much more complicated count? Of course. But if Elliott Wave were too easy and obvious, it wouldn't have any value.
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Registered User
Joined: 1/28/2005
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Quote:"But if Elliott Wave were too easy and obvious, it wouldn't have any value."
Not sure something has to be complicated to add value.
After all look at the 50 day moving average.
The problem with many interpitations of the same thing is it leaves
a lot of "wiggle room"
Especially on the commercial side of the industry.
(Booksellers,Authors, Seminar givers,Experts)
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Registered User
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QUOTE (rmr1976) My count from the 2002 low is as follows:
Wave A (or W)
Wave a: Oct 2002 lo to November 2002 hi 3 waves up
Wave b: November 2002 hi to March 2003 lo 3 waves down
Wave c: March 2003 lo to March 2004 Hi 5 waves up
Wave B (or X)
wave a: March 2004 hi to May 2004 low 3 waves Down
wave b: May 2004 lo to June 2004 hi 3 waves Up
wave c: June 2004 hi to August 2004 low 5 waved down
Wave C (or Y)
wave a: August 2004 low to Jan 2005 hi 3 waves up
wave b: Jan 2005 hi to Oct 2005 lo 3 waves down
(April low ends wave w of b) 3 waves down
(August Hi ends wave x of b) 3 waves up
(October Lo ends wave y of b) 3 waves down
wave c: October Lo to May 05 high?? 3 waves up
waves d,e and possibly f,g,h,i to come
I consider the October low more significant because it touched the uptrend line, where the April low came close, but didn't.
Likewise, the August 2005 hi did not touch the upper trendline, while the move from the October low forced me to redraw it.
If you consider the April low more significant, then that simply makes my wave C longer.
Is that a much more complicated count? Of course. But if Elliott Wave were too easy and obvious, it wouldn't have any value.
I am able to follow and agree with the analysis, up to the Aug 04 to Mar 05 high, looks inpulsive to me then a 3 corrective to Apr 05, then a five up to Jul 05 then a 3 down to the Oct 05 lows.
From there on it becomes less obvious, since we are predicting not just observing past performance.
From the Feb lows I see either a corrective or ending diagonal (I think you were implying that as part of your last counts).
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Well MT predictor is now showing the sp-500 will make it to 1352-1365. Not much more to go.
The dow could go to 12072-12159. It has already exceeded its "typical" range and is now heading for its "max range" so it really can correct anywhere between todays range and the above number.
The nasdaq should hit the 2478-2522 range so it has quite a bit to go.
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HnC,
Will it make it on this go, or are we due for a correction first? I can see it either way.
What happens after we hit 1350? I say about a 100 point drop (give or take), another test of 1350, and then down.
Should give nice swings to trade.
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Registered User
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QUOTE (rmr1976) HnC,
Will it make it on this go, or are we due for a correction first? I can see it either way.
What happens after we hit 1350? I say about a 100 point drop (give or take), another test of 1350, and then down.
Should give nice swings to trade.
100 SP500 points?
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Registered User
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"HnC,
Will it make it on this go, or are we due for a correction first? I can see it either way.
What happens after we hit 1350? I say about a 100 point drop (give or take), another test of 1350, and then down.
Should give nice swings to trade.
100 SP500 points?"
Over the course of a few months--I thought that meaning was obvious.
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I was half asleep when I saw your post. 
I plan on selling into the strength, lightening up the load so to speak as I'm fulling margined at present. Maybe some puts around that area, some protective calls on LT holdsings that are still in the RED.
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I don't see the market making new highs later this year after a correction. I definitely believe the the correction will come immediately following the new highs.
Normally I only trade from September to April 30th. I'll stay in during this rally but the first signs of trouble and I'm out.
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HNC
I'm that camp also, since I have it in a 5ht of a third, as my post above. Though I don't have a down target yet. I suspect it may be in the area of the Oct lows.
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 Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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My indicators imply that we are in the midst of a top right now (meaning this week). On the SP-500 chart the bearish ascending wedge was broken through to the upside on Monday which Prector says in his book Elliott Wave Principle is common just before the fall. Sort of a . . last hurrah. The pressure from here should be down for 1 to several weeks. I let MoneyStream tell me that. It goes down till it don't go down any more. If it in fact continues up from here, that would certainly be bullish and surprise me to no end.
Soc
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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bearish ascending wedge broken through on Friday - not Monday - sorry
soc
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Registered User
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A very short term wedge, but I do see it. I still am looking at a 5th wave completion to the pattern I mentioned above. From the hourly charts it looks like we are in the 3rd of that last or still correcting (2) from the high on Fri.
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Registered User
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Quote:"On the SP-500 chart the bearish ascending wedge was broken through to the upside on Monday which Prector says in his book Elliott Wave Principle is common just before the fall. Sort of a . . last hurrah."
I always find it amazing that people can use Precters name when you consider how wrong
this guy has been about the market and the economy. If one day we should go into a great
depression. He will have missed it by about 25 to 30 years
(not to mention thousands of points).
He holds a unique position in the industry. He has done the most to popularize EWT and
at the same time he is its worst advertisement.
"Top" is a very loaded word. The way I see it there is a big difference between a 5 percent
correction and a major bull market top. It seems to me posters should use the term "top"
to mean a bull market top and "correction" for a smaller scale sell off.
I realize it doesn't sound as sexy or sophisticated. For my money just slap a 40 week moving average on the SP-500. You would have "called" more major market turns over the last 40 years then Precter ever has.
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Diceman,
If we take your argument seriously, we should disregard the methods of fundamental analysis as well, since most fundamental analysts have a poor track record.
I just re-read an interesting quote from a classic in fundamental analysis Quality of Earnings by Thornton O'Glove:
Leslie Gould, one of the great market watchers of the 1920's told a reporter years later that he saw the 1929 crash coming the previous summer. The young man protested. "Mr. Gould, you were bullish up until the very end. I read all of your columns, and the messages were always positive." "Of course they were" Gould snorted as though talking to an innocent. "If I said, sell everything on Monday and go fishing, what could I write on Tuesday?"
Pretcher caters to a select group of readers--those who are pessimists. His bearishness distinguishes himself from the slew of other newsletters that are permabulls.
You only read about his Elliott counts--many of which I disagree with, and were laughably wrong. But much of his work has value, because it forces you to question conventional wisdom.
He was the lone wolf calling for the threat of deflation in the 90's, and sure enough, the pros were talking about the risks of deflation in the early 2000's.
Keep in mind that successful prediction doesn't sell newsletters. Appealing to the biases of speculators, who as a group are wrong, does.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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Diceman - I definitely do NOT use Elliott Wave by itself. I've lost way too much money doing that. I require that my indicators agree with it. And my indicators are a composite of you folks in this chat room, the Worden Knights and Dames and many others. I mention Prector only because, when possible, I like to give credit where credit is due. I read somewhere that the Diagonal Triangle (wedge) has a 75% or better chance of success. Unfortunately, many of my indicator setups are from various Knights whose names I've long forgotten yet will be forever grateful.
And your 40-week moving average - I like it. Thanks
soc
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Registered User
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QUOTE (Socrates) Diceman - I definitely do NOT use Elliott Wave by itself. I've lost way too much money doing that. I require that my indicators agree with it.
Me too. Now that I have to have 5 of 7 indicators to confirm it works a whole lot better. 4 of 7 works pretty good as well but so far 5 of 7 have not had any failures yet. Of course the sample size is not very large yet, but I am encouraged.
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rmr1976
I actually think individuals using Elliott can perform well. Its just that Precter
being so wrong is probably the wrong face for it. I believe more in the theory
then Precter. He has committed one of the cardinal sins of investment. His
opinion has blinded his TA.
Even the market doing what it shouldn't is a trading opportunity. Could you imagine
going to cash in 1994 because you wanted to avoid the tech bubble.
Quote:"we should disregard the methods of fundamental analysis as well, since most fundamental analysts have a poor track record."
I agree. Fundamentalists are usually correct. The question is one of timing.
In the market we must deal with what is happening now.
(the same problem Precter has. There will be bad times someday the
question is when.)
Quote:"Pretcher caters to a select group of readers--those who are pessimists. His bearishness distinguishes himself from the slew of other newsletters that are permabulls."
Should "permabulls" be a derogatory phrase when they are correct?
I'm sure there are UFO clubs and flat earth societies that cater to select groups of individuals.
While I would never subscribe to being a permabull. I would say their batting average
is a lot better then his.
Quote:"He was the lone wolf calling for the threat of deflation in the 90's"
That's the problem. When you are eternally bearish and pessimistic. When something
bad finally happens you can assume "lone wolf" status. Is it worth "lone wolf"
status when so much of the time you have just been wrong?
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Socrates
Glad to hear you are also following technicals.
As I've stated Precter has done a lot to make EWT a household name.
For better or worse he is probably the "face" of EW. I just cant understand
how you can have credibility when you've been wrong about everything else
for so long.
Thanks
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Registered User
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Well, today approached my near term target for the sell off. It will be important to see if the market follows through. The 55 day moving average has provided strong support for this rally since December. A close below that level (1300) would signify a correction of greater proportions.
The alternate possibility is an extension of the triangle for a few more weeks (with waves f,g,h, i), which could take this to marginal new highs (circa 1350), and get the bulls snorting again.
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I believe that we will close below 1300, and travel down some more before turning up. My perspective says that my previous 5th wave is/was incorrect, but a corrective from the Apr high. I was encountering more and more difficulty in finding an impulsive pattern, except for yesterday. This appears to be a zizzag down, that may have ended 30 minutes before the close. It also could be an extension, which means more downside action prior to a bounce.
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Sounds very likely bknight. I see the downward target of the s&p at 1252-1261 if this is only a minor correction.
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QUOTE (HaveNoCents) Sounds very likely bknight. I see the downward target of the s&p at 1252-1261 if this is only a minor correction.
Which means that it will not happen at all and something else will occur.
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lol, yep
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Registered User
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We closed below the key 55 day moving average (exponential) that has provided support to the market. This was done on the SP and the Nasdaq.
The Dow has a much stronger looking chart, and could easily find support at the 55 day moving average.
An interesting exercise is to take a look at the Russell 1000, and sort by Price Change Today. The sector that dragged down the market was energy, raw materials, and metals. This certainly didn't help out my portfolio, at least on some of the miners, which I had been playing from the long side.
HL. a silver mining company I mentioned back in March (Some Low Priced Stocks I actually like...), which I remain bullish on long term, appears to be going through a wave 2 retracement. It is already looking oversold, and has reached the 38.2 retracement level on the weekly.
I'm having trouble whether it is time to lighten up, or double down to get prepared for wave 3 up. As my plan was to hold this for a longer term trade, I think I'll just hold for now, and wait for some signs this correction is over.
As for oils, many of them look like they are topping out, as I pointed out in this post in March:
Stocks that look like they are at major tops
Surprisingly, there was some interesting action in the tech stocks. AAPL held up pretty well (I hedged by buying some AAPL June puts to protect my call spreads). AMAT also stayed strong, despite the market sell off. I had sold my AMAT calls yesterday. AMD, and MOT (to my annoyance) also refused to give ground.
In what could be a perfect example of Murphy's Law, pull up a weekly chart of VIVO. I had bought puts on it on March 27, which of course wasn't the best time. The stock popped to 26. But I decided to hold on, since my July puts still had lots of time to work in my favor, as my weekly indicators suggested this was at a major top.
VIVO traded above 25 for the month of April. I decided to take my lumps, and closed out the puts on 5/10.
Of course, that was precicely the WORST thing to do! As you can see from the last 2 days, VIVO collapsed 11% in 2 days! *&%*#@!
I'd expect a bit of a bounce on Monday. There is no reason yet to believe the 55 day moving average won't encourage some institutions to head into the market. But I have to agree with the Wordens--the short side looks like the better bet at this point. I'd be looking at interest rate sensitive sectors--banks, brokers, as well as the overbought industrial metals, Oil stocks, etc.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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To my surprise, my indicators are implying we should get a correction up into options expiration give or take a few days. It may be just a trading range with an upward bias or it may be stronger than anyone expects, but it looks like the markets (DJ-30, SP-500 and NDX) want to bounce right here. NDX actually looks like it could prove to be the stronger of the three.
Basically I'm looking at a line chart of T2121, Zoom 2. If one does a ^C and overlays one of the indexes. There's a fairly consistent pop to follow the low value of T2121.
soc
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Registered User
Joined: 3/7/2006
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I sold EVERYTHING on monday and tuesday. I see pretty good chance of a nasty correction. I will be buying again this week, but very selectively and I will have my share of shorts.
I think the real money will be made on the short side for at least the next few weeks, if not longer.
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Registered User
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The market is way oversold on a short term basis and I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce Mon.
A bounce until Friday may be asking/looking for too much.
All my short are currently in good shape but the rally will be feracious and short lived.
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Registered User
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The downside action has accelerated with the selloff on Wednesday. A look at the weekly charts confirms the 1245-1255 as a zone of key support.
1. The 55 week moving average, a line that has provided reliable support and resistance for decades, is now at the 1246 level. When the 55 week moving average (exponential) is broken on the downside, that isn't a good time to be buying stocks.
2. Starting from the August 2004 low, a 23% retracement level coincides with the December low, at 1245. That level was also the August 2005 top, and the 61.8% retracement level of the bear market from the 2000 peak.
I don't think it wll be easy to slice through these support levels on the first go. With a small bit of help from the Fed, the market could test the 1300 level again, before there is enough incentive to start selling for real.
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Gold Customer
Joined: 11/13/2004
Posts: 102
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BKnight - regarding your May 11 post - "A very short term wedge, but I do see it."
The diagonal triangle to which I was referring is 5 months long. I was using rmr's Wave c of C wave count that he started this thread with, i.e. the very first two posts.
Drawing the top line of the diagonal by connecting the end of wave a, Jan. 11, and the end of wave c, March 16, and turning on line extentions, we see that the May 5 SP-500 pops up through the extention. This is the "throw-over" referred to on page 37 of Elliott Wave Principle. I called it a "last hurrah". When Moneystream started rolling over the next few days, everything fell into place.
soc
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Registered User
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QUOTE (rmr1976) The downside action has accelerated with the selloff on Wednesday. A look at the weekly charts confirms the 1245-1255 as a zone of key support.
1. The 55 week moving average, a line that has provided reliable support and resistance for decades, is now at the 1246 level. When the 55 week moving average (exponential) is broken on the downside, that isn't a good time to be buying stocks.
2. Starting from the August 2004 low, a 23% retracement level coincides with the December low, at 1245. That level was also the August 2005 top, and the 61.8% retracement level of the bear market from the 2000 peak.
I don't think it wll be easy to slice through these support levels on the first go. With a small bit of help from the Fed, the market could test the 1300 level again, before there is enough incentive to start selling for real.
I'm still in the same camp 1250.
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Registered User
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QUOTE (Socrates) BKnight - regarding your May 11 post - "A very short term wedge, but I do see it."
The diagonal triangle to which I was referring is 5 months long. I was using rmr's Wave c of C wave count that he started this thread with, i.e. the very first two posts.
Drawing the top line of the diagonal by connecting the end of wave a, Jan. 11, and the end of wave c, March 16, and turning on line extentions, we see that the May 5 SP-500 pops up through the extention. This is the "throw-over" referred to on page 37 of Elliott Wave Principle. I called it a "last hurrah". When Moneystream started rolling over the next few days, everything fell into place.
soc
Ok, I went back and looked at that formation.
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Registered User
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All the indicators in the world are worthless if you can't read a chart and relate volume to it.
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Registered User
Joined: 12/19/2004
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Ok here is my complete(?) analysis, both bull and bear case(my eyes are red and blurry from looking).
Bullish Case:
From the low of 2002
Wave 3-1: Oct 2002 to Mar 2004
Wave 3-2: Mar 2004 to Aug 2004
Wave 3-3-1: Aug 2004 to Mar 2005
Wave 3-3-2: Mar 2005 to Apr 2005
Wave 3-3-3(?): Apr 2005 to May 2006
Wave 3-3-4: May 2006 to May-Jun 2006 Tagets 1229-1274 by alternation must be complex as wave 2 was simple
If 1229 is violated, then this analysis is invalidated.
So far it appears to be a double zigzag with the first zigzag in the final stages of completion.
I think I may need to revise my 1250 target down a bit maybe 1230-1240.
Bearish Case:
From the low of 2002
Wave a(or w): Oct 2002 to Mar 2004
Wave b(or x): Mar 2004 to Aug 2004
Wave c(or y)?: Aug 2004 to May 2006
Wave C(or Y): May 2006 to Aug 2006-May 2008 Targets 300-700
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Registered User
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QUOTE (bknight) Ok here is my complete(?) analysis, both bull and bear case(my eyes are red and blurry from looking).
Bullish Case:
From the low of 2002
Wave 3-1: Oct 2002 to Mar 2004
Wave 3-2: Mar 2004 to Aug 2004
Wave 3-3-1: Aug 2004 to Mar 2005
Wave 3-3-2: Mar 2005 to Apr 2005
Wave 3-3-3(?): Apr 2005 to May 2006
Wave 3-3-4: May 2006 to May-Jun 2006 Tagets 1229-1274 by alternation must be complex as wave 2 was simple
If 1229 is violated, then this analysis is invalidated.
So far it appears to be a double zigzag with the first zigzag in the final stages of completion.
I think I may need to revise my 1250 target down a bit maybe 1230-1240.
Bearish Case:
From the low of 2002
Wave a(or w): Oct 2002 to Mar 2004
Wave b(or x): Mar 2004 to Aug 2004
Wave c(or y)?: Aug 2004 to May 2006
Wave C(or Y): May 2006 to Aug 2006-May 2008 Targets 300-700
Well the low, so far(so good) was 1245.34. The wave looked like a zz finished Monday, a B wave correction with a lower low continues, maybe up to 1270-1287
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